In the whole grand scheme of things, defenses in Standard Fantasy Football aren’t the best way to get points, but in a close game every point counts. When taking a defense in Fantasy Football, you want to get the best matchup you can at that point in time. Usually this is done by matching up the Fantasy Points Against index for all defenses. (An example of this can be found here) Once you get about three or four weeks into the season, the trends for each team can become more clear, and you can plan on what team you can match up against, but in the beginning of the season, this can be more difficult, and you’ll probably rely on data from last year to determine which defense is best.
You may be thinking, “no way, Seattle’s defense is the best in the league, just use them!” and although that statement may be true, the truth is, Seattle’s defense is being drafted at 62nd overall in most drafts, and at that position, you can find better value and more points potential at pretty much every other position (except probably the kickers), and a better potential of finding a superstar rather than spending a pick on a safe defense, then having to settle for a cellar-dweller RB or WR at the end of the draft. Resist the urge to draft defenses early.
So what makes a team a good matchup against a defense in the NFL? Well, aside from having an inept offence, a high turnover rate is key as well, as points are given for both fumble recoveries and interceptions. Scoring touchdowns from these turnovers are also good as well. The special teams are also commonly looped together with the defenses, so having suspect kick return or punt return tactics also make teams better suited for defenses. In some cases, having all of these problems make the team a prime matchup against defenses in Fantasy Football.
Take the Top 5 teams in Fantasy Points Against for defenses last year – Jacksonville, Washington, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. All of them never really had a stable option at QB, which doesn’t help the offence. All of them had losing records in 2014, with Tampa Bay and Tennessee going 2-14, Jacksonville going 3-13, Washington going 4-12 and St. Louis going 6-10. (For the record, Oakland, at 3-13, and the NY Jets, 4-14, ranked 6th and 7th respectively at defense Points Against.) So mainly, you’re trying to match defenses against the worst teams in the entire league. The worst teams score the fewest points, and defenses score points by allowing very few points during a game.
To get a further look at who’s defenses look the best going forward, let’s look at the first four games in the Top 10 in last year’s defense Fantasy Points Against.
- Jacksonville: CAR, MIA, NE, IND
- Washington: MIA, STL, NYG, PHI
- St. Louis: SEA, WSH, PIT, ARZ
- Tampa Bay: TEN, NO, HOU, CAR
- Tennessee: TB, CLE, IND, (Bye)
- Oakland: CIN, BAL, CLE, CHI
- NY Jets: CLE, IND, PHI, MIA
- San Francisco: MIN, PIT, ARZ, GB
- Carolina: JAX, HOU, NO, TB
- Minnesota: SF, DET, SD, DEN
Judging from these matchups alone, Miami, Indianapolis, and Cleveland all appear three times, while Carolina, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Arizona, New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay all appear twice. Going from here, any of these defenses, at least for the first four weeks, are probably the best way to go, but remember, some teams (such as Tampa Bay, Cleveland) aren’t that good to begin with, so take a look at sources such as this and determine whether or not the defense is worth grabbing or not. Other times defenses such as Arizona or Miami go early in the fantasy draft, so make sure that you don’t draft your defense (if at all) until maybe the 13th round in a 15-round standard draft (and even then you might wait until the 14th and take a lotto pick in the 13th instead).
From there, you simply look at the current fantasy points against for defenses as the season goes along, dropping the team you have and picking up the team that faces Jacksonville or Washington if necessary. It might not mean much to some people, but it can mean the difference between winning and losing in Fantasy Football.
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