Predictions for the 2016 MLS Season

(Jamie Valdez – Portland Tribune)

The 2016 MLS season is about to begin, and expectations vary for all the teams. Some, like the Red Bulls and the LA Galaxy, will always be considered perennial favourites due to the deep squad. Others, like Chicago and Colorado, do not have a lot of money, a good market, and do not look like they are improving any time soon.

That being said, the MLS Cup is so unpredictable due to the fact that more than half of the teams make the playoffs, and the single elimination bracket means that an off-game for any of the teams ends the season, so any team going into good form into the playoffs can take advantage of that and punch above their own weight, and make a good playoff run. But the Shield standings are better to predict, partly because it takes the majority of the season’s results into account.

Here’s the projections for the 2016 MLS season:

Eastern Conference:

1. New York Red Bulls – They always have the most complete teams in the MLS, so there’s no reason why they can’t repeat what they’ve done in 2016.
2. Columbus Crew – Much like the Red Bulls, much of the same team is there in 2016. Hopefully Kei Kamara doesn’t quit on Columbus.
3. D.C. United – If the team had a proper stadium the team would be in the Top 2 contention. A good atmosphere can go a surprisingly long way.
4. Toronto FC – In a weak Eastern Conference, one player can carry a team to the playoffs. Giovinco can do just that. The offseason additions also help as well.
5. Montreal Impact – The player that carries this team is Didier Drogba. Probably going to be his last season but he is looking to go out on a high note.
6. Orlando City SC – Kaka and company can make the playoffs this year. Last year was a bit of a transitional period and the team can really gel now having a season already under their belt.
7. New England Revolution – Whether they like it or not, losing Jermaine Jones was a big loss to the team. He was an icon on the team, and it’s hard to see anyone else taking up the reigns as much as he did.
8. New York City FC – They have a talented team, but with the way they are aging are they going to keep off the injury list? Furthermore, can Andrea Pirlo and David Villa remain in constant form?
9. Philadelphia Union – An unremarkable team with very little to go by in a competitive (but weak) Eastern Conference. I don’t forsee them going very far with the squad they have.
10. Chicago Fire – Can a team really have a worse offseason than Chicago? Losing most of their good players doesn’t help matters.

Western Conference

1. FC Dallas – The team may not be very flashy but they are just that – a very good team. They managed to top the Western Conference last year and they have the tools to do so again this year.
2. Portland Timbers – They have a very good team that is riding high from their MLS Cup win in 2015. They have every advantage that they can have going into this season and they should start out in good form.
3. Seattle Sounders – They lost Obafemi Martins, but their team is still very good. I see them carrying over their good form this year. They deserved to be in the Conference Finals last year.
4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC – They have a good team, but they don’t exactly have “it” – that is, what makes them a truly good team. I think they’ll win a lot of games but I don’t see them being among the elite.
5. LA Galaxy – Much like NYCFC, in the sense that they are overpaid and sensationalized in a big market. They do have a half decent squad, though, and their superstars should help them into the playoffs.
6. Sporting Kansas City – They don’t really have that elite of a team, but they know how a good playoff run starts. They’ll get in the playoffs this year, despite others saying otherwise.
7. San Jose Earthquakes – Is Wondo still playing?? He will definitely have a positive impact on the team this season. There really isn’t much else to talk about San Jose, however.
8. Houston Dynamo – Much like Philadelphia, Houston is unremarkable in every way. In a packed Western Conference, it’s hard seeing Houston going very far in the playoffs.
9. Real Salt Lake – Don’t let their CCL berth fool you – this is clearly a team in a middle of a rebuild. Getting Moysisyan, a player in their 2009 MLS Cup run, won’t help in the present day.
10. Colorado Rapids – Remember when I said “Can anyone have a worse offseason than Chicago?” Colorado makes a compelling case with an apathetic owner and a team that is willing to pay gobs of money for a 36 year old goalkeeper. Makes total sense to nobody.

The MLS should focus on youth, not on aging star players, to grow their fanbase

(Courtesy NYCFC.com)

There’s no doubt that the transfers of players Andrea Pirlo and Didier Drogba have benefitted Major League Soccer, as the players give more exposure to an already growing and expanding as each year goes by. NYCFC in particular have proven themselves to be big spenders by transfering for Frank Lampard and David Villa, among others. Orlando City has former Ballon d’or winner Kaka, Toronto FC has Sebastian Giovinco, and the LA Galaxy brought in Steven Gerrard and Giovani Dos Santos during the summer. As MLS keeps growing, more and more star players from Europe are going into the league for better pay, better playing opportunities, and perhaps to grow their own status during their time in North America.

Although players like Drogba and Pirlo and Lampard are certainly great in their own right, and may also bring in some more revenue through shirt sales, the fact remains is that they are not the players that made the whole world shiver in fear five or ten years ago. The fact remains is that these players are not getting younger any time soon, and their overall impact may be limited.

I’m not saying that they won’t make a positive impact on their team in the short team. They might give great leadership to the inexperienced players they are playing with. They might help score goals or contribute defensively. They might win more games than they might have had they played elsewhere. Some might even win a few trophies here and there.

But the fact still remains; These players, at best, have only three or four years left of meaningful playing time left in their careers. Injuries catch up to them, other players show better promise, and sometimes older players fall out of love for the game. And once these players leave, they’ll definitely leave a void on their team.

So while MLS is basking in the glory of having Pirlo, Drogba, Lampard, Gerrard, Dos Santos, et al, the teams of the MLS should do themselves a good favour and focus on developing the players that will eventually replace them. Casual soccer fans will still show up for the big names no matter how badly they’re playing, but when they see that the team is better than the player they came to see, the fanbase will certainly grow larger. As more and more better players are developed from MLS, the teams of the league can only grow to be better. Relying on making the team great for the short term can only go so far. Look at what happened to the MLS’s predecessor, the NASL, in the 1970s and 1980s – the league relied on the starpower of players like Pele, who joined the New York Cosmos, but after he left, the league collapsed due to low attendance figures and bad financial management.

I doubt most of the current teams of the MLS will manage a downturn as badly as the old NASL did, but improving on their product on the field can only do wonders in making their teams better. Besides, it will help make the MLS be the league it was meant to be when it was founded – a development league for American (and by strict definition, Canadian) players in soccer/football.

Take a look at the American Soccer Team – although the average is about 27 years old (which, in the sports world, isn’t too bad), their results have been a bit disappointing. Although they did make it out of a tough group in the 2014 World Cup against the likes of Germany, Portugal, and Ghana, a loss to Belgium in the Round of 16 is certainly disappointing considering the high expectations of the team.

Then there’s the 2015 Gold Cup, where the U.S. (save for a quarterfinal match against lowly Cuba) struggled to score more than one goal in a game. It led to the team losing to Jamaica in the semifinals, eventually leading to a fourth-place finish in the tournament. Considering they can still make the FIFA Confederations Cup in 2017, it’s not the end of the world, but if the USA wants to be considered a big soccer nation along the likes of England, Mexico, and France, they need to bring in younger players in the team. Players like Kyle Beckerman, DaMarcus Beasley and Chris Wondolowski are getting older, and need to have a contingency plan in place should they retire from international play early.

As for Team Canada? Don’t even bother talking about Team Canada and their recent results.

The bottom line is that player development and training is always a better option than relying on a few players whose impact is getting limited by each day that goes by. And although we may remember those players fondly, let’s hope that the teams have better sense to make them the only reason why the MLS is considered “the fifth major league” in North American sports.